Putin didn’t have the power to stop the US. Russia has long been weaker than it is perceived, and the disastrous war in Ukraine has further stressed its military resources. We’ve already seen that Russia was unable to prop up the Assad regime in Syria – a relationship that goes back to Soviet times – and similarly could not stop action in Venezuela, arguably Russia’s most important ally in the Western Hemisphere.

The Cuban regime appears likely to fall next, leaving only Nicaragua – a state of extremely limited geopolitical importance – as Russia’s sole ally in the West.

Russian-Iranian relations, in contrast, have always been more complicated: Russia likes selling weapons to Iran and appreciated the Islamic Republic’s ability to sow chaos in the Middle East and serve as a check against American/Israeli power in the region, but Moscow was always careful not to enter into any agreement that would force it to come to Iran’s aid in the event of an attack.

And indeed, not only could Russia not have come to Iran’s aid in a meaningful way had it wanted to, it has made very clear that it was never obligated to do so. This was always a marriage of convenience – an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” kind of situation – as opposed to a genuine bond over ideology/goals.

Russia will decry American actions and express sympathy for the Islamic Republic – and will likely use America’s attack as a way to claim that it cannot negotiate peace in Ukraine – but it simply wasn’t in a position to do anything more than posture as far as preventing an attack.