The end of the war in Ukraine will come slowly at first, then all at once.

Right now both Russia and Ukraine appear to be reaching a breaking point. Ukraine has tens of thousands of its soldiers AWOL and is experiencing severe shortages of recruitment, and as a result Russian forces have been able to slowly grind their way forwards at massive cost in men and materiel.

On the other hand, Russian recruitment is growing more difficult, and the Russian economy is cracking so badly that, as of November 2025, the government has begun withholding payment of salaries to its soldiers.

As things currently stand, the war will end when one side or the other has its lines begin to crumble, either by being overstretched (Ukraine) or by mutinies and defections (Russia). This will begin in a few isolated places at first, but once the process begins that whole side will unravel, and in a matter of weeks if not days whichever side breaks first will be unable to resist the other side rolling through and taking whatever it wants.

That final collapse of one side or the other could come tomorrow, or it could come three years from now. We will not see it coming when it comes.

If we want a different outcome- or if we want to control the speed and thoroughness of that outcome- the only option is intervention, either by giving Ukraine the weapons it’s actually been asking for rather than scraps, or by denying Ukraine support altogether.

Ironically, Russia has been trying to bring about that latter option, both by backing far-right autocrats like Trump and Orban and by using Russia’s “shadow fleet”, air sorties, and drone flyovers to frighten Europe into keeping its weapons at home against a potential attack.

The irony lies in the fact that doing this is far more likely to bring about the one thing which would definitively end the war- direct European (or NATO) intervention with boots on the ground. ‘

As for myself, I prefer backing Ukraine, no matter what Der Trumpenfuhrer wants.

Slava Ukraini.

Putin is waiting for the diplomatic tide to turn in his favour, with gains on the battlefield. Putin is persistently trying to thrusting his peace deal down Zelensky’s throat, without sufficient security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression. After this brutal aggression, undeniably Ukraine and Europe will not take any risk and will make sure that they have strong security guarantees and forces to secure from Russian forces in future.

At the end of October, Ukrainian drones had hit more than thirty major Russian refineries — whic is the major source of revenue for Moscow. If the momentum continues, Kyiv could deliver major jolts to Russia. At the moment, it is unclear how the Ukraine war will end but as Putin believes that he could achieve his goal through persuading his peace deal or on the battlefield, the need is to ensure he will not succeeded.

Not only will Russia NOT win it soon, but it’s more likely Russia’s economy will collapse. Not just lose the war, but it’s own country! Russia will possibly lose systemic integrity, and fragment into fiefdoms.

Putin’s recalcitrance regarding the peace process is serving Ukraine and the West far more than it serves Russia. It’s giving Ukraine the time it needs to obliterate Russia’s primary revenue stream: it’s oil and refining infrastructure.

Oops.

Proponents of Russian aggression have argued that Russia is steadily making gains. That’s true, but at what cost? For years Russia has made tiny, incremental gains, but at an unsustainable cost in men and materiel. It’s like feeding a grown man a single raisin each day and thereby claiming you’re “feeding” him. However, the metabolic energy cost of running the human body is far higher than the energy one raisin provides. Russia is making gains (getting its raisin), but losing far more to get it!

The Novocherkassk oil refinery in the Rostov region. It burned for 5 days.

In the meantime, Ukraine has found the time to develop long-range missiles and drones. Each iteration has held a larger warhead and increased range. Now Ukraine is starting to produce the Flamingo, with a superior destructive potential and range to many high-tech Western systems! This just means more and more Russian refineries are going to go offline, and Russia’s future is getting strangled…to death.

Russian Refinery Bingo Card. This one is old, from January 2025. A lot of hits happened in August, so if anyone finds an updated bingo, let me know.

So, no Russia isn’t likely to win in Ukraine. What’s a more interesting bet is: Will the Russian Federation survive as a nation before the end of 2026?