Look at it like this. If there were intelligent life out there, how would they know about us? The only way is by monitoring radio transmissions.

The first radio transmission was sent in 1901. That was 124 years ago.

In the overall context of our galaxy, how far would our radio transmissions have reached? I’ve drawn a red circle around where is says “sun”, representing how far in our galaxy the first radio transmission could have travelled.

What do you notice about that circle? It’s hilariously, almost embarrassingly small. And no intelligent life-form outside that circle would have any possible way of knowing about our existence.

If they have no way to know about us, we have no way to know about them either.

Is there intelligent life in our nearest major galaxy, Andromeda? It’s 2.5 million light years away. So unless there was intelligent life there 2.5 million years ago, we’d have no way of knowing. We certainly can’t know if there’s intelligent life there now.

The universe is simply so big, and FTL is an impossibility.

But there are also three other possibilities:

• We are the first. The formation of the heavier elements takes at least three generations of stars, and Sun is one of the oldest of its kind. Perhaps other planets with life have not yet attained the phase where intelligent life emerges.
• We are rare. We are the only ones who have passed the Great Filter.
• We are fcucked. The Great Filter is still ahead of us.