In order to attack Poland they would first have to disengage with Ukrainian forces then move to the Polish border. Not sure the Ukrainian forces would allow that, rather doubtful they would.
The Polish military is far larger than the Ukrainian forces, they have been training for many years now and they have been getting modern equipment, for instance they have at least 1000 modern tanks (K1’s,K2’s, M1A1’s and M1A2’s}, better ones than the Ukrainians got given.
So the Polish ground forces are probably a lot stronger than Russia’s, they certainly have better logistics. And logistics has won every war in human history. (they have the full backing of the US logistics system, and the US is the undisputed king of world wide logistics)
Then just to top it off, the US has a mechanized combat Brigade within Poland at all times, for sure the Russians don’t want to tangle with that. And because of that Brigades presence an attack on Poland would also be an attack on the US and it also would be an attack on a NATO member.
Somewhat doubt Russia wants to open that can of worms.
So your plan is.. the vaunted russian army, which could not defeat Ukraine… and is still stuck in the bear junk trap that IS Ukraine..
is going cross Belarus… to invade Poland… a NATO country?
(I wanted to get this straight before I start…)
this could happen in one of three ways
A ) Russia, having begged for mercy from Ukraine and then departed Ukrainian lands, to never return… drives across Belarus and the Kaliningrad borders in to the Polish army waiting at the border… and ends up deep back inside Belarus and has to promise Kaliningrad to Poland in order to get Poland to let go…
B ) Russia attacks while currently in Ukraine… and Poland does not notice because the “invasion” is more of a steady stream of russian deserters trying to escape the death sentence that is being a russian citizen and soldier…and they fail and end up losing Kaliningrad
C ) desperate, they hire even MORE North Korean mercenaries on the Chinese dime in order to fight to the death with NATO… in this case, there are far far fewer russian deserters! .. and far more North Korean deserters that eventually make their way back to South Korea for a new life. … they fail and in the end they end up losing Kaliningrad.
All three end up with Belarus finding new allies in the west.
The other option involves Poland instituting Article 5 and all of NATO is fighting, not just Poland.
This does bring up a good question…
If russia does this, who does Kaliningrad go to?
Lithuania? Poland? Germany? an independent state?
I would presume that the citizens there would get a vote.
