No. But 2027 and 2028 are a definite maybe.

Russian armed farces

War in Ukraine is going nowhere fast and Putin is looking at the bigger prize: expanding the conflict to tear NATO and EU apart. That was always the end goal and he may think he can do it.

There is a window of danger in 2027 and 2028 for that to happen, it has a lot to do with American elections. Russia knows if USA gets involved, they only drive NATO together while destroying themselves as a nation, so they need to make sure USA says out. To that end the American election cycle is crucial.

If they attack before midterms, it could be Trump puts on his big boy pull-up diapers and gets involved to rally around the flag and maybe win in the election. It may not happen, but Trump is unpredictable enough for the risk to be unacceptable. Besides, they need more time to prepare, so 2026 is out.

The next presidential election in USA is in 2028, when someone other than DJ Trump will be elected. If nothing else biology will ensure that, so after 2028 you need to assume basic competence in the White House, meaning American involvement again. It’s also not certain, but you need to assume that will happen.

That leaves 2027 and 2028 as the window of opportunity Russia has to tear NATO and EU apart with a military action in the Baltics. Russia is not ready, but Putin could bet that neither will be Europe and roll the dice one final time.

With a lame duck in the White house determined to ruin the country that rejected him that may mean no American intervention and that’s the only window that they can see right now.

So be prepared for 2027 and 2028. There’s enough time to prepare, but not enough to waste.