Two possible ways that this Trump reign of terror will end. The first is if he kicks the bucket and dies. Then Vice President J D Vance will become President. He lacks the charisma of Donald Trump and will not inherit Trump’s MAGA cult. He would be an unpopular President, and it would be very likely that if he ran for a full term in 2028, he would lose. The other scenario as a possible end to Donald Trump’s reign is that he lives to finish out his term on January 20, 2029, when his successor will take his place. I would guess that he will be succeeded by a Democrat. Right now, the most likely successor would be California Governor Gavin Newsome.

I believe that come 2028, Donald Trump (if still living) and J D Vance will be as popular among many Americans as a plague of locusts. Unless conditions improve a lot by then, this would be a huge win for the Democratic party. But the longest that Donald Trump could possibly remain as President would be until January 20, 2029.

I also believe that the 2026 mid-term election would be a wave election like other “wave” elections such as the tea party wave in 2010 and the Democratic “thumping” in 2006. I expect that the Democratic party will take full control of both houses of congress in 2027 and that they will make the final two years of Trump’s presidency very uncomfortable for both Donald Trump and J D Vance.

It would not surprise me one bit if there is a shakeup in Trump’s cabinet as several appointees will be dismissed in 2026 and after. The first to go would be his Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth who has become an embarrassment and liability in his administration. Next to go would be his Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem who has also become a liability as well as a target for Democratic slings and arrows.

It will become a battle if the Democratic party controls congress. Then Donald Trump may be proven correct when he said that should the Democratic party take control of the Senate, none of his appointments would be confirmed. Also, I expect that Donald Trump would use his veto a lot on bills coming out of a Democratic congress. No doubt that a Democratic budget bill would strip funding from ICE and defund those ICE agents. Then there will be a battle since no doubt that Donald Trump would veto such a budget bill.

It will not surprise me one bit if many congressional Republicans join with Democrats to override Trump’s vetoes of popular bills. No doubt that many more moderate or pragmatic Republicans might realize that MAGA would be dead and there are no consequences for defying Donald Trump. Nor will it surprise me one bit if the 2028 Republican convention is divided over loyalty to Trump and those who want to move on from Donald Trump. But I believe that in the end the Republican party would nominate Vice President J D Vance to run to succeed Donald Trump. However, I believe that after the chaos of this second Trump presidency, Americans would be fed up with the divisions and drama and elect the Democratic candidate.

Right now, I would say that California governor Gavin Newsome seems to be the likely candidate in 2028 as he is already campaigning for the presidency. He will be term limited as governor in 2026, so he would be able to devote all his time and energy campaigning for President. Of course, there could be others that may have their hats in the ring as well. But as Barack Obama showed in 2008 that getting an early start and having a charismatic personality can win. Gavin Newsome would be much older than Barack Obama was in 2008, but he is better known and has a track record in California. But I would not dismiss a relatively unknown newcomer making a big splash like Barack Obama did in 2008.

To be clear, you’re asking for whst we think will happen vs what we’d like to see happen. From that lens, I will tell you how I think it will go down.

Trump is not a well man. I actually think he is very much more ill than he will allow to be disclosed. He looks tired and his energy is very low. I don’t believe he will make it the midterm general election. He will pass in office.

The aftermath will be chaotic. Vance will take the oath, and Trump will receive all the traditional honors afforded Presidents when they die. The chaos will start a few months, perhaps less, after Vance is sworn in is when the chaos will start. You see, the MAGA portion of the Republican Party likes Trump and only Trump. Once he’s gone I don’t think they will fall in line behind Vance. They will fracture. There will be in-fighting. The technocrats, like Theil, will want Vance to choose a VP that suits their desires. The Heritage Foundation, I’m willing to bet they will push Vance to select someone from the Heritage Foundation (there are about nine of them in the Cabinet now). My guess is they’ll push for Stephen Miller. Regardless, they will not be able to unite what’s left of MAGA. They will lose enough seats to flip the House back to control of the Democrats because a lot of Republicans who believed Trump’s promises got burned. The Senate is a little more questionable but the margin of majority currently is very slim. I do believe the Senate will flip as well but not by a large margin.

Vance is not popular. He’s awkward. He’s smarmy. He’s over confident in the stupidity of the American populace. He thinks we’re all really stupid and that the MAGA base will support him. Some will. A large chunk will not. The magic of Trump will die with him. The hold Trump has on people that makes them wear diapers over their clothes and maxi pads on their ears will evaporate days after his funeral. Vance will not be able to unite the MAGA wing.

If both chambers of Congress flip, we will see with rapid speed investigations into a number of the Cabinet members. We’ll see some resignations. We may see some removals, Kennedy, Heggseth, Patel. To unite the party, Vance will have to make some concessions. The tariffs will end. The attacks on the First Amendment will end. Universities, law firms, media corps are not afraid of Vance.

I think that’s enough to give an idea. It’s how I think it will happen. It’s obviously just a prediction. People will disagree, others will agree.

It’s funny, because his end was brought about by one of his own lackeys, a villain-of-the-day named Abbot. Abbot was actually attempting to orchestrate an evil plan to keep the shitshow in full effect, but it backfired brilliantly. What he did was redraw state lines within Texas in order to flip Texas’s four blue congressional seats red. In response, Newsom did the same. California has nine red seats, so right off the bat, the senate is five states bluer, which already gives democrats the majority. But it gets better. Almost every blue state has at least one or two red seats, but red states, other than Texas and Florida, don’t have the population to even have a minority. The reign of terror will end with impeachment, several arrests, and *hopefully* constitutional ammendments preventing these past nine months from ever happening again.

Although it is popular on the left to suppose some sort of apocalypse leading to the Gilead of The Handmaid’s Tale, I suspect that the end will resemble something closer to T S Elliot’s “The waste Land” …

“This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang, but with a whimper.”

In our case, we’ll all survive Trump. But those who had such high hopes for him, to accomplish some things that they could never, on the best of days, coherently describe, while whimper.

And then the adults will re-enter the room and do what they have always done in the past 40 years: sweep up the debris left by the Republicans, and — in the best sense of our oppressors of 250 years ago — mind the gap, and keep calm, and carry on.

The most formidable rebuke to MAGA world is that the tide of progress will wash over them, and that they will be nothing more than a footnote in the book of history.